Friday, April 24, 2020

What Flattening the Covid-19 Curve is Starting to Look Like

Data published daily by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control allows us to examine Covid-19 data ourselves - Data Democracy in action! There has been much talk over the past few weeks about "flattening the curve", and how important following the HSE's guidelines on staying safe can help to do this. We are all praying and hoping that the feckin' curve will revert to zero quickly, but flattening also means that we prolong the infection. 

I think we can at last see evidence that the curve is flattening. Here's a bar chart showing daily reported new cases in Ireland since 1st March when the first case was reported here:

Click/Tap to Enlarge.
While the curve is not smooth, we can definitely see the slow growth in the number of cases since the first one was recorded, followed by a downward trend over the past few days. However, yesterday's new cases figure (631) bucks the trend and shows us how easy it is for the curve to start to go up again. Based on the shape of the curve above, it will take at least 3 to 4 weeks more from today before the curve reaches less than 200 new cases per day. A sobering thought given cries for the lockdown to be eased on 5th May!

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